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Market Probability Analysis: What the Data Says Right Now 25-June-2026

  Market Probability Analysis: What the Data Says Right Now How is the broader market actually behaving? To find out, I ran a Binning Statistics Analysis on 2,123 stocks, comparing current price actions against their historical distribution as on 25-June-2026 The structural breakdown of the market's next move reveals a slight downward skew: 📉 39% Downward Shift: Stocks moving entirely to a lower historical bin. 📈 35% Upward Shift: Stocks moving entirely to a higher historical bin. 🔺 13% Range-Bound High: Stocks holding their bin but drifting slightly higher. 🔻 13% Range-Bound Low: Stocks holding their bin but drifting slightly lower. The Takeaway: With 52% of the analyzed universe showing downward pressure (shifting down or drifting lower within the bin) versus 48% showing upward momentum, the market remains highly fragmented and slightly defensive. Alpha generation right now requires precise stock selection rather than relying on broad market momentum. #QuantitativeAnalysis #...
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Beneath a falling index, the market quietly got broader. 25-June-2026

 Beneath a falling index, the market quietly got broader. A year-on-year breadth check on 25 June — counting every listed stock whose 60-day trend is running ahead of its 240-day trend, i.e. short-term momentum outpacing the longer trend. 25 Jun 2025 — Nifty ~25,250 → 437 stocks in this state (15% of a 2,890-stock universe) 25 Jun 2026 — Nifty ~24,050 → 633 stocks in this state (19% of a 3,269-stock universe) The index fell roughly 5% over the year. The share of stocks with accelerating momentum rose from 15% to 19%. Headline and breadth moved in opposite directions. And this isn't a "more stocks got listed" mirage — the universe itself grew about 13% over the year, yet the proportion in this momentum state still climbed. The broadening is real. Where did it come from? - Large caps (Nifty 100): 36 to 28 — fewer - Midcaps (Nifty Midcap 150): 50 to 42 — fewer - Small caps (Nifty Smallcap 500): 103 to 143 — more - Micro caps (outside the Nifty 750): 248 to 420 — up ~69% Mome...
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