Nifty Bank Nifty FinNifty Probability Insights

  Patterns based prediction using Predictive Analytics for Nifty and Bank Nifty as on EOD price data on 30-May-2024 Markets have been falling since last few days because of anxiety on election results outcome on 4th June 2024 which is two trading days away. For Nifty the matching pattern identified is from 1 Dec 2005 and 15 Dec 2005. While 1-Dec-2005 hit all time high on next trading day, the 15-Dec-2005 hit all time high in next 2 trading days. For Bank Nifty the matching pattern is from 23-Nov-2017 and 21-Sep-2021. While 23-Nov-2017 hit all time high in next 2 trading days and 21-Sep-2021 hit all time high in next 4 trading days. Note- This is a complex and dynamic scenario. The international markets and FII data are not supportive. 2004 election outcome experience. There are chances of my model missing out on the prediction. I have right to be wrong. Please do not take any trading positions based on this. This is not a trading recommendation. hashtag # PredictiveAnalytics hashtag #

  The markets are like a weather; you may not like it but you have to bear it. - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala Near term Indian Markets direction is expected to be uncertain due to Indian parliament elections . Based on Patterns based prediction using Predictive Analytics I have tried to predict the near term outlook for next 4 weeks. There are two patterns that matches the Nifty as on close of 24-May-2024. It matches pattern with 24-Nov-2014 and 11-July-2017. The pattern from 2014 is pointing towards 1.25% positive move on upside and -6.0% on down side. The second pattern is pointing towards 4.% on upside and -1.0% on downside. It seems, The first pattern is likely to be followed if election results are not to the likings of the market, while the second pattern is likely to be followed if the elections results are of to the likings of the market. Overall very high level of movement on either side in two digit percentage is not expected. p.s. I have right to be wrong. % are approximate levels.

  Mark Twain once said that “History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.” Every day based on the historical price data I try to find patterns to predict next 20 days market movement. While identifying the pattern based on  EOD data of 14-May-2024 the matching pattern found was from 28-Jun-1999. Today there is elections related uncertainty while in June 1999 there was Kargil war. The markets hit all time high in July 1999. Based on the pattern, Can it imply the market will hit all time high in June 2024? Note - My assessment at the time of Covid crisis had gone totally wrong. I did not anticipate Market crash at that time because Covid 19 was known from December 2019 while Markets reacted to it in March 2020. I might be wrong this time also. The reason I am going ahead with this post is because Option Chain Data is also showing positive Momentum. Dollar Index as on EOD 17-May-2024 is 104.45. The pattern is matching with 13-Nov-1998 when it was 95.74 from where it appreciated

  There is general worry over likely outcome of the parliament 2024 elections? There are many questions Should one stay invested? Or cash out to avoid any risk? But, Not being invested is also a big risk. Buying Hedge could be another option but rising volatility have resulted in higher option premiums. The market price reflects the collective wisdom of all market participants, and that opinions that deviate from market trends are often the ones that lead to mistakes and losses . Patterns based Prediction using Predictive Analytics is a handy option. I use spot Nifty Index historical price data and Option Chain data to derive the likely movement of the market in next 4 weeks.

"Choose your friends wisely, and also choose friends that you can trust."-Elyn Saks Choosing stocks for investing in a portfolio also needs to be chosen wisely. Recently, I came across two stocks that had no previous corporate governance issues but their pricing behavior made be suspicious and I exited those two stocks. Some time back SEBI chief had raised concern on froth in small and midcap stocks after that many stocks corrected but This particular stock from energy sector hit the lower circuit. Although most of the stocks had corrected at that point of time, the stock hitting the lower circuit raised questions in my mind. Another stock from pharma sector I noticed was hitting lower circuit on multiple days consecutively while the overall market was hitting all time high.  One more stock from Internet sector. Periodically it keeps appearing in the bulk deals and block deals report. I noticed that the buyer and seller happens to be from same family and it looked like it w