Predicting long term (1 year) market performance using Predictive Analyrics
Once is an accident, twice is coincidence and thrice is a pattern – Alan Weiss Predicting how markets will perform in long term over a period of year is challenging as well as difficult. There are so many possibilities of black swan events that can come up like natural disasters, wars, political unrest, economic factors like interest rates and inflations that makes it nearly impossible to predict the market for long term duration like one year time frame. I wanted to check how Predictive Analytics will be able to predict one year outcome. I am happy to note that using Predictive Analytics the direction of the market up or down was successful while prediction in terms of percentages was also good. I share three examples for Nifty for year (January to December) 2022, 2023 which were positive years and year 2008 which was negative close On 3-Jan-2022 the Nifty was 17625.7 and after a year close of 18105.3 i.e. +2.72% in a years’ time. The nearest First neare...