Nifty and Bank Nifty Probability Insights Update for 31-July-2023

Nifty and Bank Nifty Probability Insights Update for 31-July-2023

I have made a change in pattern identification. For Nifty, instead of identifying daily pattern, the pattern will remain valid as long as the flow of the pattern continues. However, the update for Bank Nifty will be on daily basis. The reason behind different behavior for Nifty and Bank Nifty is because Bank Nifty is high beta and pattern changes quickly compared to Nifty. I have back tested both and overall prediction accuracy as on 28-July-2023 is 54.06% for Nifty and 52.78% for Bank Nifty.

Nifty

This pattern remains valid as long as next day close will be below the previous day close.

There are 741 days matching the pattern. This pattern is noisy with 49.49% of positive close and 50.61% probability of negative close.

There are 366 days had positive close compared to previous day close, Average 1.04%, Minimum 0.004% and Maximum 7.65%

There are 375 days had negative close compared to previous day close, Average -1.29%, Minimum -0.01%  and Maximum -13.94%.

Bank Nifty

There are 1014 days matching the pattern. This pattern is noisy with 49.11% of positive close and 50.89% probability of negative close.

There are 498 days had positive close compared to previous day close, Average 1.09%, Minimum 0.008% and Maximum 7.67%

There are 516 days had negative close compared to previous day close, Average -1.32%, Minimum -0.008%  and Maximum -7.66%.

Disclaimer - This is not a investment or trading advice / recommendation. It does not look at Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis. The outcome could be prone to data issues or calculation issues. This post is for information purpose only.  The higher probability percentage or ranking does not guarantee the actual outcome to be matching with that of predicted outcome.