Probability Insights of Nifty, Bank Nifty and FinNifty for 2-Aug-2023

Probability Insights of Nifty, Bank Nifty and FinNifty for 2-Aug-2023

Disclaimer - This is not a investment or trading advice / recommendation. It does not look at Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis. The outcome could be prone to data issues or calculation issues. This post is for information purpose only.  I don't charge or offer any paid service. The higher probability percentage or ranking does not guarantee the actual outcome to be matching with that of predicted outcome. I am not SEBI registered. For more details on Probability Analysis refer the FAQ in link below https://www.marketprobabilityinsights.com/p/what-is-probability-analysis.html

Overall

Major indexes (Nifty, Bank Nifty and Fin Nifty) have closed in the range of -0.07% to -0.12% which shows market is waiting for clarity of direction before it takes a decisive move.

NIFTY

Spot Nifty was expected to close higher than 19753.8 with 57.82% probability, however it closed in negative by -0.10% lower than previous close at 19,733.55.

Overall back testing of Prediction accuracy as on 1-Aug-2023 is 54.04%.

There are totally 6613 trading days of historical price data of Nifty.

There are 1342 trading days matching the pattern with that of close on 1-Aug-2023

There are 644 trading days with positive close with average close of 1.11%, minimum 0%, maximum 8.05%. There is 47.99% probability of spot Nifty closing >19,733.55

There are 698 trading days with negative close with average close of -1.18%, minimum -0.003%, maximum -9.24%. There is 52.01% probability of spot Nifty closing < 19,733.55

BANK NIFTY

Spot Bank Nifty was expected to close higher than 45,651.1 with 56.35% probability, however it closed in negative by -0.12% lower than previous close at 45,592.5.

Overall back testing of Prediction accuracy as on 1-Aug-2023 is 52.78%.

There are totally 4357 trading days of historical price data of Bank Nifty.

There are 1015 trading days matching the pattern with that of close on 1-Aug-2023

There are 498 trading days with positive close with average close of 1.11%, minimum 0.008%, maximum 7.67%. There is 49.06% probability of spot Bank Nifty closing > 45,592.5

There are 517 trading days with negative close with average close of -1.32%, minimum -0.008%, maximum -7.66%. There is 50.94% probability of spot Bank Nifty closing < 45,592.5

FINNIFTY

Spot FINNifty was expected to close higher than 20342.05 with 56.44% probability, however it closed in negative by -0.07% lower than previous close at 20,327.25.

Overall back testing of Prediction accuracy as on 1-Aug-2023 is 53.05%.

There are totally 4864 trading days of historical price data of FINNifty.

There are 503 trading days matching the pattern with that of close on 1-Aug-2023

There are 255 trading days with positive close with average close of 1.20%, minimum 0.01%, maximum 7.19%. There is 50.70% probability of spot FINNifty closing > 20,327.25

There are 248 trading days with negative close with average close of -1.43%, minimum -0.01%, maximum -6.58%. There is 49.30% probability of spot FINNifty closing < 20,327.25

Location: India

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