Probability Insights of Nifty, Bank Nifty and FinNifty for 3-Aug-2023

 Probability Insights of Nifty, Bank Nifty and FinNifty for 3-Aug-2023

Disclaimer - This is not a investment or trading advice / recommendation. It does not look at Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis. The outcome could be prone to data issues or calculation issues. This post is for information purpose only.  I don't charge or offer any paid service. The higher probability percentage or ranking does not guarantee the actual outcome to be matching with that of predicted outcome. I am not SEBI registered. For more details on Probability Analysis refer the FAQ in link below https://www.marketprobabilityinsights.com/p/what-is-probability-analysis.html

NIFTY

Spot Nifty was expected to close lower than 19,733.55 with 52.01% probability, It indeed closed in negative by -1.06% lower than previous close at 19526.55 which is very near to the expected average price of -1.18%.

Overall back testing of Prediction accuracy as on 2-Aug-2023 is 54.05%.

There are totally 6614 trading days of historical price data of Nifty.

There are 1343 trading days matching the pattern with that of close on 2-Aug-2023

There are 644 trading days with positive close with average close of 1.11%, minimum 0%, maximum 8.05%. There is 47.95% probability of spot Nifty closing > 19526.55

There are 699 trading days with negative close with average close of -1.18%, minimum -0.003%, maximum -9.24%. There is 52.05% probability of spot Nifty closing < 19526.55

BANK NIFTY

Spot Bank Nifty was expected to close lower than 45,592.5 which was close on 2-Aug-2023 with 50.94% probability, It indeed closed in negative by -1.32% lower than previous close at 44,995.70. The actual low is exactly same as the expected average -1.32% mentioned average for lower close.

Overall back testing of Prediction accuracy as on 2-Aug-2023 is 52.79%.

There are totally 4358 trading days of historical price data of Bank Nifty.

 There are 517trading days matching the pattern with that of close on 2-Aug-2023

There are 251 trading days with positive close with average close of 1,23%, minimum 0.01%, maximum 9.51%. There is 48.55% probability of spot Bank Nifty closing > 44,995.70

There are 266 trading days with negative close with average close of -1.37%, minimum -0.009%, maximum -14.43%. There is 51.45% probability of spot Bank Nifty closing < 44,995.70

FINNIFTY

 Spot FINNifty was expected to close higher than 20,327.25with 50.70% probability, however it closed in negative by -1.30% lower than previous close at 20,066.95.

Overall back testing of Prediction accuracy as on 2-Aug-2023 is 53.04%.

There are totally 4865 trading days of historical price data of FINNifty.

There are 248 trading days matching the pattern with that of close on 2-Aug-2023

There are 126 trading days with positive close with average close of 1.23%, minimum 0.006%, maximum 7.71%. There is 50.81% probability of spot FINNifty closing > 20,066.95

There are 125 trading days with negative close with average close of -1.49%, minimum -0.0003%, maximum -8.29%. There is 49.19% probability of spot FINNifty closing < 20,066.95

Location: India

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