Nifty Outlook for 24-Nov-2023 based on Option Chain data as on EOD 23-Nov-2023 for Expiry on 30-Nov-2023

Predictive Analytics - Data-driven patterns based prediction

Jai Jinendra,

Previous trading day prediction review

Nifty futures opened at 19903.05 with intraday high of 19922, intraday low of 19838 and closed at 19875

Nifty futures data was pointing towards19750, However I had also mentioned the next week Monthly expiry data is showing 19950 levels. 

Next trading day prediction (Futures). 

Nifty Outlook for 24-Nov-2023 based on Option Chain data as on EOD 23-Nov-2023 for Expiry on 30-Nov-2023

Nifty Data is split with one parameter pointing towards 19750 and another pointing towards 20058 (futures).

Nifty data for December 2023 is showing weakness as of now 19700 but that expiry is far off and there are many long term options writer who would be in good profit because of premium decay.

Nifty spot Support 19500 and Resistance 19800. In between there are minor support and resistance. (spot). Although Spot Nifty has closed above the resistance level of 19800, It is just vert nearer to that level so I would wait for decisive close above 19800 before I change support and resistance levels.

Note - 

1, If Prediction is pointing towards high, and market opens high next day then check the risk reward else avoid such trade. Same for opposite side.

2. Why sometimes system parameters provides two predictions on opposite sides?

Such scenario happens for different reasons (1) Weekly or monthly expiry has happened but complete rollover has not happened on the expiry day but operator has planned it for next trading day (2) Global uncertainties, when large players want to wait for overnight developments and then decide on direction to take.  (3) Sideways Markets.

3. Global Uncertainties and events like US FOMC meets etc  could cause some disruption. 

4. Why some of the expiries miss the predicted direction?

There is not much premium left due to premium decay near expiry so market may take opposite direction of prediction. Sometimes it takes direction based on next expiry data.

5. Instead of using my predictions for trading, use it as second opinion to supplement to your own analysis. 


Disclaimer - This is not a investment or trading advice / recommendation. It does not look at Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis. It is based on quantitative approach using Predictive Analytics. The outcome could be prone to data issues or calculation issues. This post is for information purpose only.  I don't charge or offer any paid service. The higher probability percentage or ranking does not guarantee the actual outcome to be matching with that of predicted outcome. I am not SEBI registered. For more details on Probability Analysis refer the FAQ in link below https://www.marketprobabilityinsights.com/p/what-is-probability-analysis.html        

Location: India

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Next 20 days Outlook of SPX based on Patterns from Historical Price Data as on EOD Jan-5-2024

Patterns based prediction using Predictive Analytics Every data contains patterns based on which it is possible to predict the expected movement of the market. Here I am trying to derive expected movement of SPX in next 20 trading session which will be approx 1 month timeframe from the day it is evaluated.  This blog is like central repository for me that I can refer in future to see how my research of the subject is progressing. Please don't use it for your trading. See the disclaimer below. Next 20 days Outlook of SPX based on Patterns from Historical Price Data as on EOD Jan-5-2024 The historical price data as on Jan-5-2024 is matching the pattern with  3 instances of the past.  1. First Pattern match is from March-21-1985 where in SPX had moved up 1.79%, corrected -0.84% and closed positive 0.98% in next 20 trading sessions compared to the opening levels of next trading day of March-21-1985. 2. The second pattern match is from April-22-1996 where in SPX had moved up 3.98%. corr
Read more

टीसीएस नाम का व्याकरण शास्त्र से विश्लेषण

 टीसीएस एक आईटी सेवा, परामर्श और व्यापार समाधान संगठन है जो पिछले 50 वर्षों से दुनिया के कई सबसे बड़े व्यवसायों के साथ साझेदारी कर रहा है। हमारा मानना ​​है कि नवाचार और सामूहिक ज्ञान बड़े उद्देश्य के साथ हमारे सभी भविष्य को बदल सकता है। टीसीएस यह चार अक्षरों का शब्द जिसमे की ३ अक्षर जल मंडल से है और १ शब्द पृथ्वी मंडल से है. जल मंडल और पृथ्वी मंडल मित्र मंडल है और उनका विरोधी मंडल अग्नि मंडल और वायु मंडल है. जैसा की आप देख सकते है की टीसीएस शब्द में अग्नि मंडल और वायु मंडल से कोई भी अक्षर नहीं है. यानि इस नाम के चारो अक्षर मिलके एक साथ टीम बांके काम करते है.  शायद इसी लिए टीसीएस कंपनी एक बड़ी सॉफ्टवेयर कंपनी बन पायी है जिसके अभी २०२४ में ६ लाख से ज्यादा कर्मचारी है जों १५३ देशो में काम करते है और इस कंपनी को नवोन्मेषी कंपनियाँ में गिना जाता है.  Disclaimer Note – This subject is of Faith or Trust. There is no assurance that every individual using this service will get their desired outcome.  
Read more

Next 20 days Outlook of SPX based on Patterns from Historical Price Data as on EOD Jan-12-2024

Jai Jinendra, Patterns based prediction using Predictive Analytics Every data contains patterns based on which it is possible to predict the expected movement of the market. Here I am trying to derive expected movement of  SPX in next 20 trading session which will be approximate 1 month timeframe.  This blog is like central repository for me that I can refer in future to see how my research of the subject is progressing. Please don't use it for your trading. See the disclaimer below. Next 20 days Outlook of  SPX based on Patterns from Historical Price Data as on EOD Jan-12-2024 1. First Pattern match is from Nov-11-1991 where in  SPX had moved up 4.17%, corrected 0% and closed 4.17% in next 20 trading sessions compared to the opening levels of next trading day of Nov-11-1991. 2. The second pattern match is from December-12-2017   where in SPX had moved up 7.09%. corrected -0.34% and closed 7.09%  in next 20 trading sessions compared to the opening levels of next trading day on Dece
Read more