Nifty Outlook for 28-Nov-2023 based on Option Chain data as on EOD 24-Nov-2023 for Expiry on 30-Nov-2023

Predictive Analytics - Data-driven patterns based prediction

Jai Jinendra,

Previous trading day prediction review

Nifty futures opened at 19869.95 with intraday high of 19885, intraday low of 19800 and closed at 19825

Nifty futures data was pointing towards19750 on lower side and 20058 on upper side. The market remained within that range.

Next trading day prediction (Futures). 

Nifty Outlook for 28-Nov-2023 based on Option Chain data as on EOD 24-Nov-2023 for Expiry on 30-Nov-2023

  • Nifty Data is still split with one parameter pointing towards 19750  on lower side and another pointing towards 19980 on upper side(futures).
  • It looks like Market is waiting for opinion polls after 5 states elections.  Once the market decides on the direction to be taken, The extreme levels as of now are pointing towards 19308 on lower side and 20210 on upper side.
  • Nifty data for monthly expiry of December 2023 is showing weakness as of now at 19633 but that expiry is still far off and there are many long term options writer who would be in good profit because of premium decay.
  • Nifty spot Support 19500 and Resistance 19800. In between there are minor support and resistance. (spot). Although Spot Nifty has sometimes closed above the resistance level of 19800, It is just very nearer to that level so I would wait for decisive close above 19800 before I change my opinion on new support and resistance levels.

Note - 

1, If Prediction is pointing towards high, and market opens high next day then check the risk reward else avoid such trade. Same for opposite side.

2. Why sometimes system parameters provides two predictions on opposite sides?

Such scenario happens for different reasons (1) Weekly or monthly expiry has happened but complete rollover has not happened on the expiry day but operator has planned it for next trading day (2) Global uncertainties, when large players want to wait for overnight developments and then decide on direction to take.  (3) Sideways Markets.

3. Global Uncertainties and events like US FOMC meets etc  could cause some disruption. 

4. Why some of the expiries miss the predicted direction?

There is not much premium left due to premium decay near expiry so market may take opposite direction of prediction. Sometimes it takes direction based on next expiry data.

5. Instead of using my predictions for trading, use it as second opinion to supplement to your own analysis. 

Disclaimer - This is not a investment or trading advice / recommendation. It does not look at Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis. It is based on quantitative approach using Predictive Analytics. The outcome could be prone to data issues or calculation issues. This post is for information purpose only.  I don't charge or offer any paid service. The higher probability percentage or ranking does not guarantee the actual outcome to be matching with that of predicted outcome. I am not SEBI registered. For more details on Probability Analysis refer the FAQ in link below https://www.marketprobabilityinsights.com/p/what-is-probability-analysis.html        

Location: India

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