Nifty Outlook for 20-Dec-2023 based on Option Chain data as on EOD 19-Dec-2023 for Expiry on 21-Dec-2023

Predictive Analytics - Data-driven patterns based prediction

Jai Jinendra,

Previous trading day prediction review

Nifty futures opened at 21481 with intraday high of 21594 intraday low of 21415 on lower side. and closed at 21529

Nifty data was split with one parameter pointing towards 21625 on higher side and another pointing towards 21350 on lower side. Nifty remained within the mentioned range.

Next trading day prediction (Futures). 

Nifty Outlook for   20-Dec-2023 based on Option Chain data as on EOD 19-Dec-2023 for Expiry on 21-Dec-2023

  • Nifty Data is pointing towards 21650 on higher side and 21450 on lower side. 
  • Refer point 2 in Note below for reason for system pointing two values on opposite sides.
  • Nifty spot minor support 21000 major support 19800 and no major Resistance. 
  • Nifty has gone up too fast. It must take some consolidation before continuing the rally else there is a risk of sharp downfall also.

Note - 

1, If Prediction is pointing towards high, and market opens high next day then check the risk reward else avoid such trade. Same for opposite side.

2. Why sometimes system parameters provides two predictions on opposite sides?

Such scenario happens for different reasons (1) Weekly or monthly expiry has happened but complete rollover has not happened on the expiry day but operator has planned it for next trading day (2) Global uncertainties, when large players want to wait for overnight developments and then decide on direction to take.  (3) Sideways Markets.

3. Global Uncertainties and events like US FOMC meets etc  could cause some disruption. 

4. Why some of the expiries miss the predicted direction?

There is not much premium left due to premium decay near expiry so market may take opposite direction of prediction. Sometimes it takes direction based on next expiry data.

5. Instead of using my predictions for trading, use it as second opinion to supplement to your own analysis. 

6. Sometimes Market will continue to go higher even though the data is pointing lower levels. Please refer below post for explanation for the same.

https://www.marketprobabilityinsights.com/2023/11/predictive-analytics-and-trading.html

Disclaimer - This is not a investment or trading advice / recommendation. It does not look at Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis. It is based on quantitative approach using Predictive Analytics. The outcome could be prone to data issues or calculation issues. This post is for information purpose only.  I don't charge or offer any paid service. The higher probability percentage or ranking does not guarantee the actual outcome to be matching with that of predicted outcome. I am not SEBI registered. For more details on Probability Analysis refer the FAQ in link below https://www.marketprobabilityinsights.com/p/what-is-probability-analysis.html         

Location: India

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