Next 20 days Outlook of SPX based on Patterns from Historical Price Data as on EOD Jan-5-2024
Patterns based prediction using Predictive Analytics
Every data contains patterns based on which it is possible to predict the expected movement of the market. Here I am trying to derive expected movement of SPX in next 20 trading session which will be approx 1 month timeframe from the day it is evaluated.
This blog is like central repository for me that I can refer in future to see how my research of the subject is progressing. Please don't use it for your trading. See the disclaimer below.
Next 20 days Outlook of SPX based on Patterns from Historical Price Data as on EOD Jan-5-2024
The historical price data as on Jan-5-2024 is matching the pattern with 3 instances of the past.
1. First Pattern match is from March-21-1985 where in SPX had moved up 1.79%, corrected -0.84% and closed positive 0.98% in next 20 trading sessions compared to the opening levels of next trading day of March-21-1985.
2. The second pattern match is from April-22-1996 where in SPX had moved up 3.98%. corrected -2.75% and closed positive 3.90% in next 20 trading sessions compared to the opening levels of next trading day on April 222-1996
3. The third pattern match is from April-19-2017 where in SPX had moved up 2.89%, corrected 0.12% and closed positive 0.81% in next 20 trading sessions compared to the opening levels of next trading day of April-19-2017.
While there are minor supports in between, Next major support is between 4640-4680 levels. The minor resistance is at 4760 to 4800 levels.
How did the prediction perform one month back?
The pattern for Dec-6-2023 with pattern value of 105.6502 with below to matching patterns.
First Pattern match is from July-3-2018 with pattern value of 105.6375 where in SPX had moved up 4.97%, corrected 0.20% and closed positive 3.69% in next 20 trading sessions compared to the opening levels of next trading day of July-3-2018.
Second Pattern match is from March-21-2018 with pattern value of 105.7214 where in SPX had moved up 0.21%, corrected -5.83% and closed negative -0.69% in next 20 trading sessions compared to the opening levels of next trading day of March-21-2018.
Note -
1. This prediction is based on the assumption that SPX continues to drive on current road that it is driving into. If it takes any exit to take new road (direction), new prediction will be required.
2. The prediction is for likely outcome not assured outcome. The actual outcome can be different or opposite of the identified outcome.
3. Global Uncertainties and events like US FOMC meets etc could cause some disruption.
4. Not a trading or investment recommendation, It is just a report that shares insights based on patterns. Instead of using my predictions for trading, use it as second opinion to supplement to your own analysis.
6. Why more than one patterns are shown?
Two nearest patterns to current pattern are identified as similar patterns. While one pattern is shown that is above the current pattern and another pattern is shown that is below the current pattern.
Disclaimer - This is not a investment or trading advice / recommendation. It does not look at Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis. It is based on quantitative approach using Predictive Analytics. The outcome could be prone to data issues or calculation issues. This post is for information purpose only. I don't charge or offer any paid service. The higher probability percentage or ranking does not guarantee the actual outcome to be matching with that of predicted outcome. I am not SEBI registered. For more details on Probability Analysis refer the FAQ in link below https://www.marketprobabilityinsights.com/p/what-is-probability-analysis.html
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