Next 20 days Outlook of SPX based on Patterns from Historical Price Data as on EOD Jan-12-2024

Jai Jinendra,

Patterns based prediction using Predictive Analytics

Every data contains patterns based on which it is possible to predict the expected movement of the market. Here I am trying to derive expected movement of  SPX in next 20 trading session which will be approximate 1 month timeframe. 

This blog is like central repository for me that I can refer in future to see how my research of the subject is progressing. Please don't use it for your trading. See the disclaimer below.

Next 20 days Outlook of  SPX based on Patterns from Historical Price Data as on EOD Jan-12-2024

1. First Pattern match is from Nov-11-1991 where in  SPX had moved up 4.17%, corrected 0% and closed 4.17% in next 20 trading sessions compared to the opening levels of next trading day of Nov-11-1991.

2. The second pattern match is from December-12-2017   where in SPX had moved up 7.09%. corrected -0.34% and closed 7.09%  in next 20 trading sessions compared to the opening levels of next trading day on December-12-2017

While there are minor supports in between, Next major support is between 4600-4640 levels. The minor resistance is at 4800 to 4840 levels.

How did the prediction perform one month back?

The pattern for Dec-13-2023 matched with below to matching patterns.

First Pattern match is from Feb-24-1993 where in  SPX had moved up 3.60%, corrected -0.27% and closed  1.63% in next 20 trading sessions compared to the opening levels of next trading day of Feb-24-1993.

Second Pattern match is from April-12-2017  where in SPX had moved up 5,89%, corrected -2.35% and closed 5.89% in next 20 trading sessions compared to the opening levels of next trading day of April-12-2017.

The actual movement Dec-13-2023 where in SPX had moved up 2.02%, corrected -0.53% and closed 1.63% in next 20 trading sessions compared to the opening levels of next trading day of Dec-13-2023.

Note - 

1. This prediction is based on the assumption that Index continues to drive on current road that it is driving into. If it takes any exit to take new road (direction), new prediction will be required.  

2. The prediction is for likely outcome not assured outcome. The actual outcome can be different or opposite of the identified outcome.

3. Global Uncertainties and events like US FOMC meets etc  could cause some disruption. 

4. Not a trading or investment recommendation, It is just a report that shares insights based on patterns. Instead of using my predictions for trading, use it as second opinion to supplement to your own analysis. 

6. Why more than one patterns are shown?

Two nearest patterns to current pattern are identified as similar patterns. While one pattern is shown that is above the current pattern and another pattern is shown that is below the current pattern.

Disclaimer - This is not a investment or trading advice / recommendation. It does not look at Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis. It is based on quantitative approach using Predictive Analytics. The outcome could be prone to data issues or calculation issues. This post is for information purpose only.  I don't charge or offer any paid service. The higher probability percentage or ranking does not guarantee the actual outcome to be matching with that of predicted outcome. I am not SEBI registered. For more details on Probability Analysis refer the FAQ in link below https://www.marketprobabilityinsights.com/p/what-is-probability-analysis.html