Posts

Showing posts from January, 2025

Predicting S&P 500 in the year 2025 using Predictive Analytics?

Predicting S&P 500  in the year 2025 using Predictive Analytics? US Markets have started the year with big bang and near all time highs. Here I use Predictive Analytics to find a matching pattern to S&P500 and try to find out how it is expected to perform in the year 2025. The nearest matching pattern that is found matching is from BVP (Bovespa Index of Brazil) on November-23-2023 from where, it had moved up by 8.45% and fallen by -5.60% in next 12 months.  What could be S&P500 prediction on Jan-02-2024 using Predictive Analytics?  The nearest matching pattern was from Fedex on Jan-25-2006 that had moved up by 17.10% and moved down by -3.70%. The actual performance of S&P500 was it moved up by 28% and moved down by -0.70% in next 12 months from Jan-02-2024. #spx #SP500 #patterns #prediction #predictiveanalytics

Predicting Gold price for the year 2025 using Predictive Analytics

  Predicting Gold price for the year 2025 using Predictive Analytics Gold has appreciated by 34% in 2024, it is nearly $2600 on Jan-2-2025. I wanted to check How is it expected to perform in next 1 year. The nearest matching patterns were found with MDAX from Germany that had 10% up move and 6% down move in next 12 months. So overall Gold can be expected to be positive in 2025. A question might come that, How would the Predictive Analytics have performed on 2-Jan-2024 when Gold was above US $2000? The system found nearest matching pattern from US stock Broadcom on March-4-2010 that had moved up 78% and -1% in next 12 months. The actual movement of Gold was 34% on up side and -4% on down side in next 12 months. #PredictiveAnalytics #patterns #prediction #gold

Predicting US 10 years Bond Yield for 2025

  Predicting US 10 years Bond Yield for 2025 Increase in US 10 years Bond Yield is triggering exit of FIIs from emerging economies to safe heavens in US. I did a pattern match using Predictive Analytics to predict likely movement in next 12 months of Calendar year 2025 based on the data available as on Jan-2-2025. It found a nearest matching pattern from same instrument i.e. US 10 years Bond Yield from August 18, 2004. The US 10 years bond yield had moved up by 10.84% and moved down -7.46%. If pattern matched is correct, one can expect the US 10 years bond yields to fall in next 3 months and after that it will rise after that to peak in next 8 months. hashtag # US10yearsbondyield hashtag # predictiveanalytics hashtag # patterns hashtag # prediction

Predicting 1 year outcome of NIFTY IT in 2024

  There is a Gujrati proverb that translates to “you can predict the character of a child while in the cradle and of daughter in law as she enters the door of in-law's house for the first time, Based on their behavior” While I wouldn’t agree or disagree with above proverb, I am always fascinated to predict the stock market stocks and indices based on their individual characteristics using Predictive Analytics. Here, I share an example on Nifty IT index as on EOD 1-Jan-2024 to understand how it would perform one month down the line and one year down the line. Nifty IT closed near 35700 on that day. The matching patterns were identified by the system with Bank of America 1-December-2005 from where in next one year it had moved up 19% . The second pattern matched with Mcdonalds 26-Jan-1983 from where it had moved up 31% in next 12 months. The Nifty IT actually moved up 26% by the end of the year. Note – Percentage mentioned are approx. hashtag # PredictiveAnalytics hashtag # Pattern...