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"The central idea in The Black Swan is that: rare events cannot be estimated from empirical observation since they are rare. "- Nassim Nicholas Taleb Can Predictive Analytics predict a Black Swan event in advance? Covid 19 was the biggest black swan event that occurred in recent past and cause high volatility in the stock markets worldwide. I explore whether it was possible to predict it in advance? The major impact of this Black Swan event was felt in March 2020. I use the example of a very popular stock "Meta" from Nasdaq. The stock was trading at $204 on Feb-3-2020. The system identified a matching pattern from Ford Motor Co on March-2-1994. In 1 Month from the date mentioned, The Ford stock had risen +2.7% and fallen by -6.6% and in 2nd Month from date mentioned, the stock had fallen -12% , comparatively in Month 1 (Feb 2020) Meta had risen +6.6% and fallen -6%. In 2nd month (March 2020) which was the peak of market volatility Meta stock fall by -27%. Disclaimer...

 Patterns based prediction of NASDAQ 100 (NDX) for next 12 months as on Feb-19-2025 using Predictive Analytics Nasdaq has been making all time highs as on Feb-19-2025. The system identified two nearest patterns which both are indicating opposite directions. First pattern matched with Hang seng Index from Jan 19, 2018 that had positive movement of 3.8% and negative movement of -22% in next 12 months. The second pattern matched with Johnson & Johnson from March 8, 2017 that had positive move of21% and negative more of -2% in next 12 months. It would be interesting to see what path Nasdaq 100 follows from the matched patterns. A question might come, How would have Predictive Analytics performed a year back. From Feb-20,2024 NASDAQ 100 had positive mov of 17% and negative move of -2% in next 12 months. The two closest matching patterns were from Northrop Grumman  from July 11, 2022 that had positive move of 16% and negative move of -8% in next 12 months. The second closest pat...

Patterns based prediction of Google (Alphabet) Share for next 12 months as on Feb-5-2025  Google (Alphabet) company has declared results today and the shares have fallen from $207 to $190 in Nasdaq. Here I try to see what to expect of Google share price in next 12 months applying Patterns based prediction using Predictive Analytics. The nearest pattern matches with a stock PNC Financial services from March-19-1998. The stock has moved up +9.8% and moved down -31% in next 12 months. A Question might come on How Predictive Analytics would have performed a year back on Feb-5-2024 when the stock had closed $145. The system found nearest matching pattern with a stock called ConcoPhillips on Nov-8-1996. The Share had moved up +28.2% and moved down -8.6% in next 12 months. The actual movement of Google stock in next 12 months was +39% and -8.6% in next 12 months from the Feb-5-2024. Disclaimer Note - This is not a buy or sell recommendation. Please don't trade based on this. I don't ...