Can Predictive Analytics predict a Black Swan event in advance?

"The central idea in The Black Swan is that: rare events cannot be estimated from empirical observation since they are rare. "- Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Can Predictive Analytics predict a Black Swan event in advance?

Covid 19 was the biggest black swan event that occurred in recent past and cause high volatility in the stock markets worldwide. I explore whether it was possible to predict it in advance? The major impact of this Black Swan event was felt in March 2020. I use the example of a very popular stock "Meta" from Nasdaq. The stock was trading at $204 on Feb-3-2020. The system identified a matching pattern from Ford Motor Co on March-2-1994. In 1 Month from the date mentioned, The Ford stock had risen +2.7% and fallen by -6.6% and in 2nd Month from date mentioned, the stock had fallen -12% , comparatively in Month 1 (Feb 2020) Meta had risen +6.6% and fallen -6%. In 2nd month (March 2020) which was the peak of market volatility Meta stock fall by -27%.

Disclaimer Note - This is not a buy or sell recommendation. Please don't trade based on this. I don't take any responsibility for this. This is a complex system that can change the pattern and/or prediction with a minor change of decimal fraction. The objective of the post is to create awareness of my work on Patterns based prediction using Predictive Analytics. Percentage mentioned are approx. Matching patterns occur periodically and can not be expected on day to day basis. Although as more data is collected, chances of patterns occurring increases.

#Patterns #prediction #predictiveanalytics #Meta #BlackSwan #Nasdaq



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